
Why ‘Sure Bets’ Are Costing You Money: The Truth About NFL Betting
I keep losing money on 'sure bets.'" "Everyone said the Patriots were a lock. How…
You're not alone if you’ve ever muttered this to yourself while staring blankly at a betting app or website. You’re part of a much larger club of people who feel like they’ve walked into a conversation halfway through, surrounded by insiders speaking a language you’ve never heard of.
“I don’t even understand how these odds work. Am I missing something that everyone else seems to get?”
And let’s be honest: it’s frustrating. It’s isolating. It’s enough to make you want to close the tab, delete the app, and swear off betting altogether.
But there’s something about the allure, isn’t there? The idea of placing a bet, understanding the game on a deeper level, maybe even walking away with more than you came in with—that spark keeps pulling you back.
The problem is, every time you look at those numbers—+150, -200, fractional odds, implied probabilities—you feel like you’re reading hieroglyphics without the Rosetta Stone. And that feeling? It’s more common than you think.
Odds are designed to be clear and precise… for people who already know the system. For the rest of us, they’re an intimidating wall of numbers, symbols, and terms that seem purposefully confusing. But they’re not as impenetrable as they seem. Let’s take a deep breath and untangle this knot together.
First off, there’s nothing wrong with not knowing how odds work. You weren’t born understanding them, and odds aren’t exactly a topic they cover in school. Yet, when you open a sportsbook, it’s like you’re expected to instinctively know what a moneyline is or how to calculate an implied probability. No wonder it feels overwhelming—it’s like showing up to a test you didn’t know you’d signed up for.
So, here’s the deal: odds are just a way of expressing probabilities, or the likelihood of something happening. That’s it. Forget the jargon for a second. Behind every +150 or 3/1, there’s a percentage saying, “Here’s how likely we think this is to happen.”
But sportsbooks don’t hand it to you in a simple percentage because that would make it too easy (and probably less exciting). Instead, they present odds in different formats: American, fractional, and decimal. The format you see depends on where you’re betting or the settings you’ve selected. Let’s break them down without all the fluff.
American odds are the ones you’ll see most often if you’re using an offshore sportsbook or a U.S.-based one. They come in two flavors: positive and negative. Positive odds (e.g., +200) show you how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet. Negative odds (e.g., -150) tell you how much you need to bet to win $100.
Here’s an example:
Think of the plus sign as the underdog and the minus as the favorite. The bigger the number after the plus, the less likely that outcome is (and the bigger your potential payout). The smaller the number after the minus, the more likely that outcome is (and the smaller your reward).
Fractional odds are what you’ll often find in UK-based sportsbooks, and they look like this: 5/1 or 10/3. If you’ve ever thought, “Why do I feel like I’m doing math homework when I see these?”—same.
But they’re easier than they seem. That fraction is just a ratio of profit to stake. For example:
If you squint, they’re not that different from American odds—they’re just written differently. And once you get the hang of them, they can even feel a little intuitive. (Okay, maybe “intuitive” is a stretch, but at least less terrifying.)
Decimal odds are popular in Europe, Australia, and Canada, and they’re probably the easiest to understand if you’re a fan of straightforward math. These odds show you the total payout per $1 bet, including your original stake.
For example:
Decimals are tidy and clear. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by American or fractional odds, switching to decimal might give you a much-needed “aha” moment.
Here’s the kicker: most people don’t get it instantly. The ones who seem confident have either been doing it for years or spent hours Googling, just like you’re doing now. And the truth is, even seasoned bettors mess up sometimes. Ever heard of someone misreading a line and accidentally betting on the wrong outcome? Happens all the time.
The difference isn’t in intelligence or capability—it’s in patience. Understanding odds isn’t a test of how smart you are; it’s just about exposure and practice. The more you engage with them, the more familiar they’ll become, until one day, you’ll glance at a +250 and immediately think, “Hmm, about a 28.6% chance—nice value.”
Understanding betting odds can be a significant hurdle for many individuals, leading to confusion and hesitation in participating in sports betting. Several studies and surveys highlight the prevalence and impact of this issue:
These statistics underscore the importance of enhancing public education on betting odds and mechanics to promote responsible gambling and reduce the prevalence of problem gambling behaviors.
If you’re still feeling shaky, that’s okay. Start small:
And remember, you don’t have to know everything to get started. Most bets don’t require you to understand every nuance of every format; you just need to feel confident enough to make a choice.
Learning how odds work can feel like climbing a mountain in the dark, but every step you take shines a little more light on the path ahead. And while the journey might seem slow at first, every bit of progress adds up. Eventually, you’ll look back and wonder why it ever seemed so intimidating.
So the next time you see a +300 or a 7/2, take a deep breath. You’re not missing something everyone else gets—you’re just at a different point in the process. And with a little patience, practice, and persistence, you’ll get there, too.
When that happens, don’t be surprised if you find yourself explaining odds to someone else, helping them cross the same bridge you once struggled to navigate. Because here’s the thing about betting: it’s not just about numbers. It’s about taking a chance, learning as you go, and finding your footing, even when it feels uncertain. You’ve got this.