
Why ‘Sure Bets’ Are Costing You Money: The Truth About NFL Betting
I keep losing money on 'sure bets.'" "Everyone said the Patriots were a lock. How…
The first time I heard someone say, “The Super Bowl is rigged,” I was standing in a packed sports bar, watching a last-minute touchdown change the course of a game. The guy next to me slammed his beer on the table and started ranting about how the NFL scripts everything, how Vegas controls the outcomes, and how betting is just a trap for suckers. I remember laughing, but later that night, as I scrolled through sports forums, I realized just how many people actually believed these things.
Super Bowl betting is one of the most exciting (and nerve-wracking) experiences for football fans and casual viewers alike. But over the years, I’ve heard a ton of myths that mislead people—especially first-time bettors—about how it all works. Some are harmless, some can cost you money, and others just take the fun out of the experience. After making my fair share of bets (and mistakes), I decided it was time to debunk the biggest Super Bowl betting myths once and for all.
Every year, without fail, as soon as a controversial call or an unbelievable comeback happens, people start shouting, “It’s rigged!” The idea that the NFL scripts games to align with Vegas odds is one of the most common myths out there. But let’s think about this logically—if the NFL were truly manipulating outcomes, do you really think thousands of players, coaches, referees, and league officials could keep it a secret for decades? The truth is, Vegas doesn’t need to rig games. Sportsbooks make money regardless of the outcome because they set the odds to ensure they have balanced action on both sides. If the public leans too heavily on one team, they simply adjust the lines to even things out. The house always wins in the long run, whether your team covers the spread or not.
One of my friends made this mistake in his first Super Bowl bet. He figured, “The favorite is the better team, so they have to win, right?” Not exactly. If Super Bowl history has taught us anything, it’s that underdogs can and do win—sometimes in dramatic fashion. Just ask anyone who bet against the New York Giants in 2008 when they stunned the undefeated Patriots. Favorites do win more often than not, but blindly betting on them without considering factors like injuries, matchups, and game conditions is a recipe for disappointment.
I once knew a guy who convinced himself that doubling down on every losing bet would eventually get him a huge payday. Spoiler alert: It didn’t. He ended up blowing his entire bankroll before halftime. Super Bowl betting, like any form of gambling, doesn’t guarantee anything. Bigger bets just mean bigger risks—not a guaranteed return. Smart bettors manage their bankrolls carefully, avoid emotional decisions, and never bet more than they can afford to lose.
I used to think that betting on the national anthem length or the Gatorade color was just a waste of money. But then I realized that prop bets can be incredibly strategic—if you know where to look. While some props are pure luck (like the coin toss), others, like player props, can be based on actual research. For example, betting on a receiver’s total yards can be influenced by their matchup, recent performance, and game script. Some professional bettors actually specialize in prop bets because they can find better value than in traditional spreads and moneylines.
Every year, I hear people say, “Follow the sharp money!” as if professional bettors never lose. While sharp bettors are more disciplined and analytical, they’re not fortune tellers. They study data, look for value, and make calculated wagers, but even they don’t win every time. The Super Bowl is especially tricky because it attracts tons of public money, which can skew the lines in unpredictable ways. While it’s useful to see where the smart money is going, blindly following it without doing your own research isn’t a foolproof strategy.
One of the biggest mistakes I made early on was assuming that once a betting line moved, I had already missed the best opportunity. While it’s true that early bettors often get the best numbers, line movement can sometimes create new opportunities. If a line shifts heavily in one direction due to public betting, it might create value on the other side. The key is understanding why the line moved—was it based on legitimate news (like an injury), or just public overreaction? Sometimes, the best bets are made right before kickoff, when casual bettors have driven the line too far one way.
Ah, the classic heart-over-head mistake. I’ve been guilty of this one. A few years ago, I bet on my favorite team in the Super Bowl knowing full well that they were outmatched. I convinced myself they had a chance, but deep down, I knew I was betting with my emotions, not logic. Betting on a team you love isn’t necessarily bad—as long as you can stay objective. But if your analysis is clouded by fandom, you’re more likely to make bad bets just because you want your team to win.
Super Bowl squares—the classic office pool game where you randomly get numbers assigned to each team’s score—might seem like pure luck, but they’re not a scam. The randomness makes them fun, and since most pools pay out at the end of each quarter, there’s constant excitement throughout the game. Sure, you can’t control your numbers, but that unpredictability is what makes squares so popular. Just don’t expect to win with 5-2 or 8-1—you’re probably out of luck.
The beauty of Super Bowl betting is that anyone can win. Yes, experience helps, but every year, casual bettors cash in on lucky long shots, crazy parlays, and random prop bets. I’ve seen people who knew nothing about football hit big just because they liked a team’s colors or picked a player’s name at random. Luck plays a role, and sometimes, beginners do win. The trick is knowing when to quit while you’re ahead and not getting sucked into thinking you’ve cracked the system.
If everyone’s betting on one side, it must be the right pick, right? Not necessarily. The public loves favorites, overs, and flashy storylines, but public money doesn’t always move in the right direction. Oddsmakers adjust lines to balance the action, not to reflect what’s actually the best bet. If a line looks too good to be true, it probably is. Sometimes, fading the public—betting against the masses—can lead to value plays that go unnoticed.
Super Bowl betting can be an absolute thrill, but it’s even better when you understand the game beyond the myths. Whether you're placing your first wager or looking to refine your strategy, remember that betting is a mix of skill, research, and a little bit of luck. And above all, it should always be fun—because once you start chasing losses or believing in conspiracy theories, the game stops being a game.